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What is at risk if London floods?
1.5m people live in the defended floodplain of the River Thames and its tributaries. Many more people work, visit or travel through these potentially vulnerable areas.
The high density of the urban area means there is a rapid response to rainfall in both natural and constructed drainage systems, meaning that there may be no forewarning of fluvial and surface water flooding.
Central and Local Government
London is the seat of government and parliamentary activity for the UK. The Central Government district of Whitehall is entirely within the Thames floodplain, along with the Houses of Parliament and City Hall, the Greater London Authority’s HQ.
Large areas of Pimlico and Victoria are the site of important government offices. Local authority offices located in areas such as Hammersmith, Tower Hamlets and Newham town halls are also based within the floodplain.
The impact of a flood in these areas would be devastating, affecting not just London but the whole of the UK. It is hard to place a value on the loss or disruption caused but a recent report by the Environment Agency (2007) suggested the loss of staff time alone in the civil service would cost £10m per day. In spite of continuity arrangements for major crises, such an event could be profound.
London is the UK’s largest centre of economic activity and is often referred to as a leading global financial centre alongside New York and Frankfurt. London is estimated to contribute £250 billion to the UK economy each year.
Although the traditional centre of the ‘square mile’ of the City of London is outside the floodplain of the Thames, rapid development in the Docklands area is entirely within it. The Docklands is well protected against flooding, however the Environment Agency accept climate change will make existing defended areas more vulnerable over the this century.
The material damage to the skyscrapers located in the area may be relatively small, however the expense of relocation of business and the damage to transport could be significant.
Disruption caused from a serious flood could result in losses for the UK as a whole, notably the tourism industry, as London is not only a popular destination but a stopover for people traveling the country.
The Thames Gateway; Europe’s largest regeneration project and the site for an estimated 200,000 new homes by 2020, is attracting investment in the housing and commercial sectors. As this area is located largely in the floodplain, flood risk is already a concern for developers who aim to ensure new development manages and limits flood risk. This flooding risk to the Thames Gateway has been raised in numerous debates at the House of Commons and continues to be a source of debate amoung parliamenray leaders.
House of Commons debate on flooding, December 2006
The London Underground
The London Underground (LU) is a vital part of London’s infrastructure, with over 1 billion journeys made each year. Much of the central area of the Tube network is based within the floodplain and 38 underground and Docklands Light Railway stations could be at risk.
Short periods of heavy rain, as witnessed on August 2002 in London, can result in surface water flooding, often described as flash flooding, which can lead to disable affected Tube line(s) for extended periods. Estimates put the loss of one days disruption on the underground at £0.75m.
The LU Environmental Report (2006) noted that studies have shown that sections of the underground network are vulnerable to flooding from the River Thames. Incident data from the report shows flooding and adverse weather conditions accounted for 32% of environmental incidents in 2005/6.
Following the London Climate Change Partnership’s study of the effects of climate change on London’s transport system LU undertook an upgrade of the drainage systems on the Jubilee, Northern and Piccadilly lines to help mitigate the risk of flooding at key stations.
The LU Environmental Report (2008) reported that in 2009-2010 LU and the London Climate Change Partnership Transport Working Group will be working on prioritising vulnerable underground stations to ensure that the transport system in London is prepared for the effects of climate change.
Thames Estuary 2100 is a flood management plan for London and the Thames Estuary, lead by Dave Wardle, Environment Agency. The plan takes into account the impact of climate change, rising sea levels and the natural ageing of flood defence infrastructure to plan and manage flood risk in the region up until 2100.
The usual response to this risk has been to construct fixed, raised defences in the form of walls or embankments, these however, do not eliminate the chance of flooding entirely and can often provide a false sense of security or complacency among those living or working in defended areas.
Due to climate change both the chance and consequence of flooding are increasing. Sea level rise, more frequent and higher storm surges and increased winter rainfall and more intense summer rainfall will add to existing risk. The London Flood Response Strategic Plan notes that it may not prove possible to improve fixed defences sufficiently to maintain or raise protection standards.
Floods are mostly natural events that result from either excessive rainfall that leads to rivers overflowing their banks, or from tidal storm surges on the coast or in estuaries such as the Thames Estuary.
The damage and death that can potentially be caused only occur due to the human activity that takes place in river valleys or estuaries where floodwater spreads. In urban areas such as London, man made drainage systems may have inadequate capacity or become blocked leading to further flooding.
Planning Policy Statement 25 - Development and flood risk (PPS25) (LINK TO PPS25 PDF) advises avoiding building on development in flood risk areas, a common concern regarding the ongoing development of the Thames Gateway region
Action Today to Protect Tomorrow - London Mayor's Climate Change Action Plan